2020 Democrat Primary Poll Analysis Part 3 | Trending News

2019-07-08T14:28:58+00:00 July 8th, 2019|

All right everyone it’s time for some more dem primary pol analysis pretty soon we’ll be getting post fourth of July polling and I have a feeling that that may be a little bit different from these numbers will have to reanalyze in a few days when that happens we’ll need at least two or three polling firms to come up before that the reason why is the Trump speech appears through a buoy to support significantly you’ve been riding on 43 shoots up to 45 because he makes a good speech that’s probably gonna be close to his new floor he’s gonna be going into the election with numbers that are better …

Continue reading… n what he’s got right now I can assure you of that because he’s it’s easy for Trump to look presidential it’s not easy for a Democrat that’s weak like Biden to look fiery and it’s not easy for a fiery Democrat like Kamala to look sane so we’re gonna look at these numbers here keeping in mind of course we’re still a very long way out from even having a Dem nominee let alone you know in the general election actual voting time that doesn’t happen for quite some time as like people are already saying like well you know the gig is up Trump has already been slated to lose by the Illuminati or something it’s Elizabeth Warren will be our next president then some people like well Trump can beat anyone in this clown car he’s a shoo-in you’re all wrong you have no clue what you’re talking about we’re talking when we talk about odds when we’re talking about politics like this we talk about perception over reality and odds over some concrete definite sort of outcome that’s all you can do within politics otherwise you’d begin to contend to be wrong because your own bias will creep in and you get in the ass a Biden number one it’s the tale of Biden that’s what this race has been about he is still the front-runner his lowest number on the list of the last five polls is still higher than the next highest which is Harris at 20 and that is probably a statistical outlier when I look specifically at the Quinnipiac poll that has Harris on 20 and Biden only at 22 they’re also saying that Booker has three percent support and I have a feeling that the questioned methodology there might be a little bit off because none of these things make sense the numbers they’re just they don’t make any sense to me per se it looks like an outlier I tend to trust the economists more than any other polling firm I have a feeling that if I look at the those numbers it looks an awful lot like maybe there was no an undecided option in the Quinnipiac poll which might mean that because Harris had just come off a good debate performance a lot of people with the electability issue on their mind came out said well yo Harris if I have to get my I don’t know but I guess Harris if I have to choose somebody I have a feeling that that’s why it’s a statistical fluke it’s way ahead of her agar did it’s way ahead of these others CNN poll had her at 17 I questioned that too I personally think Elizabeth Warren is more likely when I look at this The Economist has Warren at 19 Harris at only 15 that ironically makes more sense the same poll has Sanders in the single digits finally at nine Sanders has fundamentally been knocked out I hope that the Democrats realize that Sanders is incapable of going further left because he’s already been a socialist his whole life he’s been out lefted by Kamala Harris by by inauthentic as though it may be Elizabeth Warren Booker has arguably lurched further to the left of Castro you’ve got a dem field that universally believes in giving free health free to immigrants illegal immigrants you have a democratic field that by and large believes in throwing billions or trillions of dollars at the student loan crisis you have a dem field that believes almost universally in the fact that Americans should not be able to get ahead do you need massive tax rates then to the point where Obama’s tax plan would seem like you like center-right under the auspices of half of the Democrats you’ve got a field that is made up of insane people Bernie Sanders is one of the less insane of these individuals now it’s astonishing because four or five years ago it was understood Bernie Sanders is a is a rogue very far left individual among Democrats that by and large or center-left their corporate Dems their neo liberals in a very short period of time that has proven to be not true anymore because of the uprising of people of charismatic but you know airheaded individuals like aoc individuals like Elin Omar who now is openly proclaiming the he wants the border to essentially disappear she’s calling for the literal reception of US border control like the the abolition of border control there wouldn’t be agents on the southern border it’s not exactly entirely immediate clear what she would replace this with I’m assuming nothing which means that basically you wouldn’t have a border essentially becoming come all ‘if and unfaithful because anyone who can walk across this invisible line is an American by default I’m sure ela Nomar would love that to happen she would love that then she then she and their other Democrat rich allies can have more more sub minimum wage slaves I hope you realize that economic populism for the working and middle class that the Democrats campaign and one on many times disappears when you have an open border who’s who if I’m a business owner why the hell am I going to pay you know the $15 minimum wage or whatever stupid amount to an American worker when I can find someone who will work under the table for half that why would I do that it doesn’t make any sense especially when I’m gonna be shelling out a higher business tax rate I’m gonna cheat as much as possible in such a system and so will everyone else it’s just like Soviet Russia what did people do they skimmed a little here and a little there in the economy broke down welcome to welcome to the USA SSR I suppose be just like pre-reformation commie China or something like that it’s not enough potatoes to go around well this potato disappeared it’s not accounted for hmmm it went under this burlap sack out my unheated barn that’s what idiots like Elin omar want to happen here we must stop them at all costs that’s why I won’t be voting for the Democrats it’s why the pen said trump pen sign is back up the reason for that cuz these people are nuts they’ve gone they’ve gotten so far off into the left field they fell off a cliff already and they don’t even realize it they’re falling and they’re on their way down and they’re still closed that they’ve got their eyes closed they don’t even see the precipice looming up before them so Biden who is technically saying no although demented is still the front-runner now his aggregate is 26 the next is Harris with 15 I believe that Kamala Harris will go back down to her long term mean or long term average which is you know 15 10 to 15 points the reason why is when I look at the massive spike after the debate it looks an awful lot like what happens every single election cycle a candidate suddenly they do well they rise up really sharply sometimes even become a temporary frontrunner they then go back down very quickly it’s statistical noise it’s based on the very very flighty 15 minutes of fame based population with a short attention span giving undue attention to someone who has only really done one thing that’s noteworthy meanwhile Biden has been remarkably stable his floor is somewhere in the low 20s in a massively packed field his long term mean is around 2530 I expect him to gravitate back to that number unless he does what Joe Biden is unfortunately best at doing which is doing stupid things making dumb mistakes especially now that he’s older he gets confused more easily if he comes out swinging at the next debate gets really fiery it would probably be better for him of course he can’t do he’ll get the must sexist label if he does that to Warriner harris which is funny since they’re respectively second and third place I think that Warren has now moved into second place she’s on the rise and it’s a stable trajectory her rise is stable it’s not she spikes all of a sudden and then probably goes back down this is months in the making for Elizabeth Warren she’s been on her way up because she’s being compared to two old white dudes which you know if you’re a Democrat being an older white male is not a good idea career-wise there’s no but there’s no party at this point for white males anyway you know they’ve been screwed the Republicans won’t defend them against discrimination and being victims of the knockout game or something like they will maybe females and then the Democrats openly viscerally hate white males like they hate me I’m a white male supposedly part Abenaki but that doesn’t help it helps elizabeth warren but only because she lied consistently for decades I say I’m not sure so I’m a white male and I’m straight so the Democrats hate me they think that I’m the problem with this country especially since I have a youtube channel they think that’s problematic – oh my god extremism extremism interesting how they can run an explicitly discriminatory sexist and racist platform and they get away with it at least among their own dumbass fans but I think that Warren is in second Sanders has fallen to fourth Harris is probably in a close third behind Warren then we have but Aggies aggregates five-point-two economist says he’s at eight that would be a fairly sharp rise I’m not sure about that though because it doesn’t agree with the other numbers five or six sounds reasonable now that makes him he’s above five he’s viable it’s just that he’s it’s getting ticked talk the clock is ticking but again you need to do something spectacular obviously being the most well-spoken and one of the more sane people on the debate stage didn’t work you need to lash out and attack these people Biden can’t really do it anyway you know I know that people like but again you’re probably a little bit worried about the socialism within the party because he doesn’t strike me as far far left you need to play a tack dog go after Kamala and take her down a peg because you know that you can antagonize her and more in a little bit and they’ll go crazy they’re gonna be attacking one another anyway get him riled up do what you need to do for your country essentially is what I would tell Pete but again the very the very least he can play spoiler within the dem field he’ll have a solid shot in 2024 because then he’ll be in his 40s he’ll have more experience maybe he’ll have sought legislative seat or something he would definitely be in my mind a front-runner at that point you know an election or two from now but Agee is gonna be a force to be reckoned with if he stays in politics and doesn’t make any major mistakes especially if he can develop that fire yes he’s the best spoken on the stage I would have said it was Julian Castro before the debates happen Julian Castro fell apart Gillibrand fell apart she tried to be an attack dog and failed because Kamala Harris totally out shown her because she had more recognition it was funny to see Gillibrand trying to go toe-to-toe with Kamala Harris it’s like she should be able to it’s just no one takes her seriously and she looks too patronizing shoes she looks waspish like the her optics up on the stage were not the usual Gillibrand the more personable one the one that says well Al Franken is problematic it was proud it was problematic watching her performance and then cory booker he got no boost he’s done castro got no boost he’s done gabbard’s done and all of the people below but a gig are done better O’Rourke has disappeared you know his initial he came out and he was around where buddy gig is now but a gig has absorbed all his support and so is Biden I think it’s a tale of five individuals right now within the field there is no possibility in my mind there’s there’s no real scenario I can see in which somebody with one or two percent of the support can do well enough at a debate or give a speech well enough or or suddenly gain enough donations to be able to shoot themselves into the top of the field it’s no longer possible they’ve waited too long they should all drop out this race should have 5 people in it at this point Joe Biden Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders and Pete bought a gig and that’s it nobody else is viable yang is done sorry to all of the yang gang people out there he had never had a chance to begin with because he’s nuts sorry to the Gabbard people yes Gabbard is saying gabbard’s better than most of the rest of the field but she hasn’t gained enough traction it’s too late in the game for her to be able to gain that traction now if she were to she would be a Carly Fiorina if she did gain any remember when Carly Fiorina and a really good performance I think it was the the second kiddie table Republican debate and she suddenly got a gun up near 10% but she went back down she never broke into the top three and it’s in the she was never going to it was never possible for her to because most of the field let me tell you most of the field at this point has coalesced as hard support behind one of the top five candidates more than half of the Democratic voters have already done that they’ve already chosen chosen who they support and it’s hard and support 70% of Democrats support one of the top 5 candidates there are no longer enough votes left among the others which will always be scattered among that massive field in order to buoy anybody else up past but a geek it’s no longer possible it’s numerically impossible for that to happen the only exception would be the death or dropping out of a top-tier candidate like if Biden tomorrow has a stroke Sanders tomorrow calls it quits or something okay that can shake it up then there’s room for another fifth place candidate below but again maybe that’s the only way and I don’t think that that’s going to happen even though Sanders and Biden are both elderly that’s about all peace out