Trumps Approval Rises, but it is NOT at 52% | Trending News

2019-02-13T15:37:16+00:00 February 13th, 2019|

All right everyone it’s time to talk about polling specifically with regards to Trump’s approval this is an important thing an admonition to all of you stop trying to tell me what the poll results are based on one or two polls please do not insist that you are right if you are using one number and I’m using an aggregate I will beat you every single time in my predictions here’s why people are trying to tell me Trump has 52% approval right now what are they basing this on here as mucin poll Rasmussen has systemically overestimated Trump’s support level by a significant margin four years the fac…


Continue reading… hat they were right in 2016 was a function of turnout it had to in but in the midterms they get blown out of the water you gov is the closest thing to a perfect single poll they’ve got him at forty three right now that’s about on line with the aggregate but here’s the big thing the most you know recent poll being Rasmussen I haven’t checked this morning against them out here but we’ll see what happens his approval has risen they in the wake of the State of the Union which was a brilliant tactical move by the way in the wake of this competing rally with Beto that makes him look really good way better than the Democrats in the wake of Elin Omar in the wake of the Virginia scandals the Democrats have taken a hell of a beating over the last couple of weeks Trump meanwhile has had a series of considerable successes North Korea he’s going to have another meeting with Kim jong-un the announcement was big news when it happens his approval probably rise a couple more points he could be riding on 45 right now but it takes a good week for the polls to catch up because he gotta wait for the other polling firms but saying well Rasmussen says it’s 52 so it’s 52 no that’s not what it means that’s the same as if you say well the CNN poll that just came out shows him at 30 percent so his approval is thirty no it’s not and you look at the aggregate the aggregate says 42 43 that’s about where it is and it’s on the rise it’s certainly not going down or stagnating at the moment he’ll probably go to about where he was before was just like forty four point five percent maybe 45 Matt by the way is number one survivable number two comparable with where Obama was at the same time number three represents a slight rise above what had been a long-term ceiling on his support of around 45 43 percent the fact that he would go above that by a couple points if that’s indeed the case which I speculated is when you see new polling that’s a sign that there is a switch among certain centrist voters towards the Trump camp I’ll tell you why I think this is happening the Democrats have made a series of bad blunders they don’t have a centrist candidate that’s number one they’d be a clove of char which it who’s criticized as being a Republican with a D after name and Tulsi Gabbard who’s nuts the rest of them are all a bunch of far leftists most of them are so are bi by any reasonable standard we would deem them to be socialistic the funny thing is they’re not helping their cause because they’re embracing literal socialism under aoc and people like that the Democrats are having hard times they’re riddled with scandals they have no clear leader but they do have a face for Donald Trump to use as a punching bag which is Elizabeth Warren oh yeah the only candidate in their field currently running that has any real name presence other than Kamala and Kamala Harris trust me is way worse than Elizabeth Warren so Trump is being compared to them see before before the campaign heats up every president has this problem if there’s no active campaign at the time you’re just being compared to a generic blankness it’s basically if you do something wrong people are likely to disapprove of you but what if there’s another party to compare yourself to what if there are other individuals Elizabeth Warren Kamala Harris whatever to compare yourself stores he’s trying to get the American people to compare himself to Pelosi and Alexandria Cortez and Elizabeth Warren and the embarrassments of the Democratic Party meanwhile the centrists in the Democratic vote the neoliberals normally centrist is no such thing there’s no moderate Democrats as no moderate Republicans moderate is an illusion there’s no such thing it just depends on what this current zeitgeist is if you fall in line within the Overton Window you’re considered a moderate you were considered a you’re a moderate Nazi because the Nazis happen to be in charge your moderate communists because you know you only want some communalism now that would pass for moderate at the time wouldn’t it yeah I’m a commie says someone back in the Stalin era but you know I think that people should have at least a few potatoes to themselves some private properties okay okay you’re a moderate communist I guess see how that works um jumps approvals rising because he’s finally got other people to be compared to this was the Kasich effect we saw this in 2016 Kasich nobody knew damn anything about it nobody knew anything about Kasich and know his platform he barely talked at the debates which was funny Carson also complaining about that at one point and so nobody knew anything about him so when they said well he wins against Hillary Clinton yes it’s because nobody they’re comparing her to generic Republican and she’s not well-liked if once you knew more about the candidate they suffered a detriment from that because some of them were honestly nuts like Ted Cruz or little Marco Trump conceived of his nuts but ended up winning anyway which is hilarious and he’ll probably win again at this rate his approval is rising but it’s not 52% especially please do not just use Rasmussen you will be let down a hundred times out of a hundred it’s like when the liberals say well Trump’s approval has cratered to 35% CNN told me so yes I’m sure I would rather trust that one polling firm because we all know how unbiased and great CNN is and how graded their political predicting they are I would rather trust that than trust a wide aggregate of dozens of polling firms taken over the course of several weeks giving me an aggregate a sort of shotgun pattern and I can sort of find the middle I would much rather just rely on that one poll it makes total sense to me see the problem is when people do that they tend to be wrong with their predictions I mean why I’m sitting here chuckling because I’m looking at the actual aggregated number he’s on the mend he’s definitely he had fallen down to about 40 41 he’s on his way up he’s past 42 he’s probably he’s probably at 45 right now which is pretty good again comparable to Obama at the same point his first term curtain certainly survivable especially you’ve got to understand Obama was running against me he survived with slightly higher than that into probe I think it was at 47 on election day if I remember correctly he managed to do fairly well against Mitt Romney Mitt Romney all things considered was at least a halfway competent candidate I thought he was cringy but he was halfway confident look at the Democratic field do you think any of them are even halfway competent Cory Booker coming out the other what the did Cory Booker’s say the other days just say well we want to push a huge tax on meat to convert people to vegetarianism yes I am sure that every red-blooded centrist American is gonna vote for you do most of the Democrats aren’t vegetarian and what the are you talking about dude as long as the Democrats ramble about climate change Trump barely even how to campaign you say well look I’m gonna let the Democrats you know what Trump should do he should his next campaign ad should just be a slices of other Democrats of the Democrats peak and you shouldn’t even say anything don’t have a slogan don’t make a speech and the next time you hold a rally just put up a bunch of YouTube videos of these people making mistakes it’ll be Mother far more effective it would also be novel I don’t know if anyone’s done that before a novel things are very good within political campaigns a little bit of advice for the Trump people get that message to him just trust me get a 20-minute reel of all of those people saying dumb and doing dumb things Trump shoots ahead and be really funny because he’ll be compared to that he’ll be compared to knock them down a peg no kneecap them as they deserve it the Democrats right now are so up that they actually know yeah they deserve to lose absolutely that’s about all P so