Yes, Trump Will Likely be Re-elected | Trending News

2019-07-09T13:34:32+00:00 July 9th, 2019|

All right everyone we start off today talking about something that is is obvious if you step back and you sort of roulette go of your own personal bias but a lot of people they can’t get past polling numbers or matchups imaginary matchups at this point you don’t even have a Dem candidate yeah and internal bias whether they’re on the right or on the left and I’m just making this statement yes Trump will likely be reelected now this deviates even from his own core fans a lot of them say well it’s certain look at the Democratic clown car he’s definitely going to be reelected 110 percent just know…


Continue reading… t necessarily what happens if he has a massive heart attack tomorrow he loses if he persists pence probably takes over at that point but if he were to stick it in he would probably get primary to be a serious primary and he would lose because people would be asking health-related questions what happens if there was an actual major scandal like let’s say he actually ends up connected to Epstein it’s possible I don’t think it will I don’t think it’s likely but let’s say you know it actually happens well yeah his presidency would be fundamentally over especially since that would take heat off of all the Democrats likely to be implicated so they would definitely focus on that 24/7 it’s just the way that it is so you can’t say certain you can say hello it’s 99% chance there’s a 90% chance I’d give it about an 80% chance right now which is pretty strong the reason why it’s not hire is we don’t know who the Democrat will be of course separate news today Warren and Kamala Harris are delving deep into identity politics we’ll see how well that works for them but a gig out raised and outspent Biden himself but a gig is now the number-one earner in the DEM field for the last quarter now of course part of that is he gets in he has that star power he got a boost from that I’m not sure that that’ll hold true for quarter 3 but at the very least he’s a top rung candidate in the money sense he’s got enough money to continue his no reason for him to drop out he’s looking at that school what was a 25 million dollars Trump’s the only one who out raised and outspent buggie will analyze that what that actually means a little bit later as far as the reelection goes in the general though once we have a Dem face to put before Trump it’ll be more clear his odds because it really does depend if he’s facing off against some if he’s let’s say Sanders out of nowhere he manages to regain his footing somehow he claws together and intelligence in a crowded field so that he becomes the nominee I don’t think that’ll happen at this point there’s a very low chance that happens you put up a 70 then 78 year-old self-proclaimed socialist against someone who’s reigning over a generally good economy in general peacetime he’ll get flattened Trump would probably win if you put him up in front of Kamala here her baggage becomes a problem her baggage and the fact that despite one good debate performance she is a little bit like maybe more cerebral version of war and under pressure but less cerebral would not like it like I would say this here’s how I’d rank those two this is an important sort of dichotomy here Elizabeth Warren is more well-spoken in a general sense but when antagonized when the questioning isn’t amiable when it when it goes beyond the neutral or the friendly and into the realm of getting questioned she locks up she does more poorly Kamala Harris under pressure performs very very well in fact she was arguably one of the best people on the stage there as far as being able to get fiery deal with you know a jab at her and deflected she did very well in her general manner of speech less so she’d be more like a Biden if he goes up and if he goes up before Biden Biden is more maybe saying suppose supposedly and some of these candidates uh but he’s just old and boring and it’s like he’s not gonna get a crowd whipped up into a frenzy if he becomes the nominee there’s like a 90% chance of trumps reelection it was Sanders I’d say 99% with Elizabeth Warren or Kamala drops a little bit some like eighty eighty-five with buddy gig I think it’d be in the 70s somewhere at least for the top rung candidates and there’s a 99% chance one of them will be the nominee at this point you’re getting awfully late in the game you’re gonna head into another set of debates after that it’s you know pretty much gonna be locked down there’s really no chance left a small well just dropped out there’s a reason for that if you’re riding it like half a percent in the aggregate and you know some polls show you at zero what’s the point of staying and at this point you’ll have attrition on the lower end of the field what will happen is it’ll thin a little bit because what’ll happen is people run out of money because even if you can get a few donations having a campaign that is still recognizable in some form does cost money if you want to have any of that money to embezzle to your own personal checkbook so to speak then you’ve got to cut and run before it all runs out then you gotta pay off like the Election Commission and stuff and you can walk away with some money you can I think you after you’d have to put it in a special accounts or a trust or something I can’t remember exactly how that works like if you let’s see you raise a hundred million for your election bid you lose you still got three million dollars in the bank at the end of it you know stuff has to happen with that money it just doesn’t end up in limbo and disappear of course somebody obviously wants it because when it spreads around it gets taxed the government like so Trump has a good chance because he’s he’s the incumbent incumbent advantage it’s mild but it is there he’s already been President so he’s believable in that role there aren’t many people on the other side that I think look believable Warren is sort of getting there kinda sorta but the thing I mean her lying about her race is a big thing I think that it’ll sink her campaign if she’s nominated Biden is the most believable only because he’s already been the vice president really that’s what it boils down to and that means it’ll imagine Sanders in that role he would he would play the president in a comedy who would you cast as a president in an action drama or something like you know some some little red button scare Cuban Missile Crisis movie Biden you could cast Biden he’d be believable but a gig ironically would probably be kind of believable and Warren kind of fits that role but the way Sanders acts no he wouldn’t be believable he would be in National Lampoon’s Independence Day or some heavy make or something like that and Kamala Harris no not really she you would cast her as the villainous corrupt president maybe she wouldn’t look believable in that role in a more drama sense that’s the other thing maybe we should expand upon the believability aspect of my analysis and say who would you cast as a president but they’d be the bad president who would be the funny president and who is the truly believable sort of civic president who evokes you know Lincoln or something who would make the characters in the movie feel good about the situation even if it seems dire he’d give them hope or or some patriotic sense or something Biden could fit that role only because he’s already been the VP and there are others in the field that could but I mean at that you have to call further you have to say okay well who’s got at least four or five percent of the vote there are only five people at that level Cory Booker and Bette O’Rourke we’re straddling the line Cory Booker did okay at the debate but he didn’t get a boost and I went to Kamala Harris so he’s done basically and O’Rourke has been sliding down into irrelevance forever it’s not gonna be long before he probably has to drop out at some point out the after the second debate I expect another candidate or two to leave and by the end of the third debate several more believe they’ll be 12 or 13 people in the field probably at that point now you could see some support coalesce around a none none of the frontrunners platform to make a sixth-place lot that’s technically viable that would be funny and probably be filled by a Gabbard or yang some some out there candidate you say Williamson that’d be funny I want that crazy hippie talking about chemicals in the food and weird like that I want her so desperately I want her to continue and persist and refuse to drop out I just want her to be there because it’ll make a mockery of the Democratic Party and that’s what the Dems need they need to lose in a spectacular fashion in fact my advice to Democrats let’s see your part isn’t never get your liberal and never trump order let Trump win vote against the Democrats tactically and let him win why because the party will crash and burn the DNC will collapse and all of the old debt reduce will be swept aside as new reformers say look we can’t keep doing this anymore we need a new way you’ll either get a far left party or a business dem revival either way it’ll be better than the weird schismatic party that you have currently and no matter what happens they’ll be able to reabsorb some other aspects of the voting bloc like like there are leftist right now that are never DNC they vote green orally or even libertarian or stay home because they don’t see the Dems as far left enough if you lurch to the left you can absorb them your jettisoning the business Dems but you’ve gotten that the paradigm shift is complete likewise if you shift back towards the center become sort of party of JFK mode you reform things you become more of a business dem party the far left goes off away but some of those centrist some of those independent voters center-left voters business Dems that really flocked to Trump by the hundreds of thousands they come on board again the paradigm is complete it’ll be interesting to see which happens in the former case they’re competing for the Southwest they’re trying to crack taxes in the latter case they’re trying to shore up and defend the Rust Belt which gave them the last few elections as well as maybe expand in the mid-atlantic it’ll be interesting to see which of these strategies ends up happening if they lose in 2020 one of the two I guarantee will happen the party will either lurch further left or it will snap back to the center regardless some people be alienated others will join the party sometimes for the first time and they will reform that’s what happens in politics the Republicans already does they were hemorrhaging support then along comes Trump to bring forth populism for the first time since like the Eisenhower era basically since the pre Nixon Southern Strategy throws the coalition grabs independent voters some of the business Dems there you go there’s your Rust Belt it’s a paradigm shift it’s a political shift that’s a metal piece